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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  October 13, 2014 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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>> this is as bad as 2008. the french finance minister says stagnation could become chronic. we will hear from them throughout the show. pershing square drops. we spoke to bill ackman in an elusive interview. street, they wall start trading on the new york stock exchange. we will be speaking to the ceo and the chairman. this is a great conversation coming up.
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good morning to our viewers in europe. welcome to you waking up in the united states. it is columbus day. i am guy johnson. this is "the pulse." we are live from bloomberg headquarters in london. we are not seeing eye to eye when it comes to shares slumping. let's talk about the markets. last week was brutal. are we getting a bounce this morning session mark yes. week, $1.5 trillion wiped out. let's talk to jonathan ferro about the action we are seeing. it took about an hour to happen and we had the turnaround. stocks are swinging up and down. it is been very volatile. how much attention can we pay to the rebound?
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the question i will ask an the point i make is the discussion and the debate has changed in its tone and direction. it is based on a recession in europe. it, there response to are two key battles going on. more theout how much central bank can do. the other is political. it is about physical stimulus. it is between german fiscal discipline and the french. meeting is going to be largely about that. i think it is fascinating. a lot of people were very long coming into this selloff. catalystthe external that affected us were the ones you a been talking about. we in a position where we being held too long?
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or did people miss the rally? >> i have spoken with people over the last two months. i struggle to find one that did not say they were over u.s. equities. that is becoming a problem. that a lots saying of people are wrong. , it is get this bad news good news. the ecb is not the fed. it is not good news. given new bloomberg survey come at saint 60% of respondents doubt mariota draw a being able to balance. it is nothing but bad news. >> that is why money is flowing
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out of europe pretty aggressively. money is sloshing out. you want to wonder how much that has got to run. mostly or starting to make those shifts. you work your way through. the last couple of weeks feel to me like the big catalyst will start to be price in. now we are in that nitty-gritty. can you hold on to some of those positions? do the margin calls -- i think that is what these -- this week will be about. are they willing to see this one through? or do they have to sell? >> no big data out of europe this week. that is going to be interesting. the french budget story is going to be interesting. france,y surrounding that clearly is one of the big ones out of europe at the moment.
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the finance ministers are meeting in luxembourg. ais is after the country had negative response from s&p. the french deficit should not be reduced at the expense of growth. it's not about time, it is about rhythm. sometimes we can go faster. in this. inflation will collapse compared to last year. we cannot have the same rhythm to reduce our deficits. >> should the french be able to break the rules? >> they are already breaking the rules. when you look at this budget, it is a greed just in terms of the rules it is breaking. >> they are not breaking the rules anymore, this is out of our hands. what has slowed is the economy.
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they are already breaking the rules. the question is if germany decides to join the party and loosen their fiscal discipline. everybody's terming to -- turning to germany. budget deficit is 4% of gdp. it is not look forward to -- >> will the germans let a backroom deal be done here? >> there are two battlegrounds. one is physical difference -- discipline and one of them has to give. think it is going to be easy for the germans to say let the french do a deal than to say we are getting into financing. a nightmare in germany. they will be hard pressed to accept that. i think the french get off the hook. >> you've called it. >> i always get these things right.
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jonathan ferro is joining us on the markets and the act drop. -- dr. out. -- backdrop. pershing square holdings raised $2.7 billion. hans nichols spoke to bill ackman. why amsterdam? you cannot list an entity that pays an incentive fee or on securities. we think of this is like a company. technically, it is a closed entity. we have to be an offshore entity. our choices were london and amsterdam. london has a specialist funds market. we wanted to be part of the major part of the exchange. realpeople look at us as a company.
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>> you've got $6 billion now. you're going to go on a shopping spree before christmas? repopulatedal gets among all the funds we manage. we have about $18 billion in capital. the cast we have raised we intend to use on a new commitment. willve a new investment we announce in the new 60 days. >> a us-based company? can you give me a hint on the sector? >> no. >> you're going to spend the bulk of the cash in one place? >> that is correct. >> we just heard a speech about crybaby shareholders. do think of yourself as that? >> carl icahn might, that in the old days. i think the reference was to the fact that in those days governments was not something top of mine. it is become much more top of
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mind as a result of activist shareholders being engaged. i think that is a positive trend. >> i'm glad you brought up carl icahn. in some ways you are different. you stay in for the long haul. you see these things to the end of the earth. >> they are investments. we think of it as an investment holding company. >> ok. bill ackman there. the other part of the conversation is hans nichols. you pushed him on where he is going to spend the money. did you get any closer to understanding that? that is the question every but he wants answered. he has 18 billion total and he is going to spend a 6 billion and one place. of that means by the end of november we are going to get some sort of hint what bill
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ackman's next big move is. we did try to press him on that. he is doing a slow striptease. are in amsterdam. in some ways, he sees himself more as a warren buffett type figure than a carl icahn. the longimself in haul. he wants to be here for another 50 years. this exchange has been in amsterdam for 400 years. he wants to match that. was an interesting day to do this. hits about how he sees the market? before heading and he talked about the ipo price is right. they did not come into low. that is when the share price was down about 3%.
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i saw somewhere that it is down as much as 8%. his take on that is that they got it right. they want to see the overall weakness elsewhere in europe. an interesting thing he said about his fund is that it's a way to trade u.s. company and get the peace of the action with his vehicle. you saw some potential play for canadian specific railroad buying. action,re piece of that you can buy a few hours ahead of time by getting a piece of bill ackman's new vehicle. >> that could increase some volatility. thanks very much indeed. hans nichols is joining us from amsterdam. isis may take that town in days.
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that is according to them. armed kurdish fighters have not been able to stop them. the health care worker has contracted ebola. the cdc has confirmed that a breach in protocol exposed the unidentified worker to the virus. other health workers may be infected. shares are slumping. maker isy eyewear losing its second chief executive. they will talk about appointing a new coo. the france -- french economy is stagnating. we will talk about changing management. when we come back, we are live
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in paris for an exclusive .nterview we will do it in a moment. we will see you then. ♪
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>> the main thing is to understand each other. we've not changed budget policy. we are doing the tax cuts we had planned. we are doing the same spending cuts.
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what has changed? inflation has slowed and growth has slowed. french finance minister. is goinghe budget that to be presented to the eu this week. the objectng to be of attention. -- of tension. we've seen all kinds of negative things been applied to the country. are they fare? good morning. overall start with the picture that france finds itself with at the moment? there seems to be this view that it is everybody else's fault. france should not change course as a result.
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as at the right way to approach the situation? i would say that it is true have pressing challenges that they have to deal with. today is a problem , it isowth and economy given the state of the german economy and the european economy as reported recently. there are challenges. they are very pressing. they cannot be resolved only in france. french begin in more leeway when it comes to the budget rules? t to the budget get sen
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brussels, should they be allowed to bend the rules? >> it is not a french question. today you see the beginning of cash drain from the eurozone to the dollar zone because of the changes in interest rates. growth isat the collapsing. the german economy has some serious problems. i would like our leaders to put the question in a different way and i would like the public opinion to put the question in a different way. the question is not should we allow the french to be bad students. the question should be should we react in a global context? >> we did think about this in a european context. we need to think about this
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in a european context. some people say that this is very positive. these are the kind of guys we need running the french economy. do you think that there has been a change of management? has that come too late? >> that is a very good question. there has been a change in management. there has not been a change in leadership. the president flip-flops. he is still the leader. the problem is that france is locked into a catch-22. on the one hand, you see a government and a prime minister that has a more pro-business approach.
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how could you be antibusiness in the modern world? end, you have the , they aremajority traditional. they need to manage the political majority. letter to thee a pilots and air france chastising them for the way they were thought it was positive the way the government acted in that situation. when the unions turned around and said we need someone to arbitrate and we need to sort it out, the government said no. you are in business. sorted out between yourselves. that was a turning point that we have not paid attention to? and the moreons
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left-leaning elements of french society need to pick that up? >> they do. i think the government was right to tell them that a business issue is a business issue. pro-businesswe are and then interfere all the time with private companies. even when the government is a minority shareholder as it is with air france. there is a clear issue with the unions in france. that.ld enough to know we have an issue with unions. i am young enough to wonder why are we are not doing anything.
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we need to unlock the growth and economic potential. that is the case in the air france story. it has been under a lot of pressure in competition. change is inevitable. with unions trying to protect themselves and protect their status and their employees without change, we can't grow the economy. end, this is a global issue that we have in france. everybody understands the need for change. everybody calls for change. the polls are showing that the french people don't rely on the government anymore to make it happen. it is very difficult to get change done. >> i have run out of time. if you're ever in london, feel free to drop by.
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we are going to take a break. let me show you what is happening with the currency markets. we've been talking about stocks all morning. the bond market could see it again. volume will become a net later in the day. we will take a break. we are back in a couple of minutes. see you then. ♪
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>> 14 eu countries may miss their renewable energy targets. track for an 18 percent target. the energy generated from these windfarms will power 4 million homes. this is expected to be operational by 2018. the company wants to use the site to raise 5 million pounds in the money will go towards developing onshore wind sure --
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windfarms. the markets are just firming throughout the morning. we will get more information we get back. we will take a short brak -- break and see later. ♪
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>> did morning. welcome back. we're live from bloomberg headquarters. i am guy johnson. these are the top headlines. -- healthealth where care worker has contracted ebola. eric duncan already passed away from the virus. there was a breach in protocol. other health care workers may also have been infected. thee are plans to sell
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stake in euro star. owns 40%. the majority is owned by france. shares are slumping. the ceo is planning to resign after just 40 jay's -- days of a job. that is just one of the market stories we're focused on. is talk about the big picture. >> we closed friday with the worst week sense may. you might've expected rebound. you are much -- not getting one. we are still flat. we are up about a quarter of 1%. opens, i know it is discussion will
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be if this is a significant downturn. in europe we have already had a correction. the dax in frankfurt is 12% off those record highs. it is 8% lower than the last 30 trading days. the highs were hit back in september. that is a correction. outrightorrection and bear market? let me bring you a bear market. it is lower over the next 30 days. you are seeing a drop of 9%. supply is not dwindling anytime soon. the bottom line for oil right now is the saudi. they are the only ones with cervical capacity. they seem comfortable where oil is trading. if they are not given a signed and they're going to tighten, oil prices could say -- stay
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with ar. -- where they are. s&p is revising the outlook for france from stable to negative. they stripped france of their aaa rating back in 2013. just said who cares. the bottom line for europe is the shift. do we fall into recession? how do we address it? battle between germany and the french about loosening that physical discipline. bank about the british versus mario draghi. who blinks first? >> waiting watch that space. is going to be a fascinating sparring competition. in the u.s..s day
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tom keene is still working. is here.ole team oakwood he markets are open. the bond market closed. those yields are ugly off the friday low. us.rt dold will join it is a perfect time to talk to him about equity markets not correcting. they're down three or 4%. what should you not do with the equities? this is one of the truest watchers of the saudi arabia and royalty. have a huge influence on the opec market. michael mckee will join us from bloomberg television and radio.
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he is our expert on the nobel prizes. we look for an announcement on the nobel prize this morning. it is always exciting. i never talk about who i think will win. it is sort of like in baseball, you never talk to the base -- pitcher during a no-hitter. we will get that this morning. >> we're looking forward to hearing that news. we need to know everything about this. do that for us later on. we have some great tv coming up. when exclusive interview with the lachman. one of his funds started training today -- trading today in amsterdam. him.nichols spoke to think the board has managed the process will. an
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then to sell that price. they have been unwilling to engage. there are some suggestions that the offer could be a material increase. they have asked for engagement with the company. there might be an opportunity for them to pay more. there has been truck -- talk about activists in the company. we could explore alternatives. you can only justify this value when a business is merged or sold to some else. where we stand with herbalife? the most significant development is venezuela. colgate is writing off the entire operation. the exchange rate is 103 to one.
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herbalife has been marking their the one.up 10 to hong kong. you're looking at live pictures at the moment. ,ost of the protesters barricades are being reinforced. are very angry about the fact that the roads are still closed. you're looking at the kind of pictures that are making them mad at the moment. let's talk about what is happening there. to the a new element story. local businesses and taxi drivers are getting cross about the fact they can't go about their business. what is that take us in terms of the overall picture? it's unclear at this point. it was ugly out there today.
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this is right in front of our building. there were hundreds of people trying to go after the student demonstrators. they were trying to tear down the eric aids. there were taxi drivers trying to drive into the crowd. it was extremely tense. there were few police. they brought in a lot of reinforcements. they had a drag some people away. no one was hurt. it was very scary for a little while. this is just a reflection of how the tensions are rising as this protest drags on. there are miles of roads that are blocked and it is still causing traffic jams in the morning. you're only talking about a few hundred protesters at each site. the policeman very reluctant to use force. they know students can get thousands of people out into the streets quickly. we have been in the standoff for more than two weeks and it does not seem that there is an easy way out for either side. in terms of an in the protest
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in terms of whether or not the ceo goes. thatstarting to rumors maybe there is a possibility that he steps down. the financial story is dogging him a bit. this may end up producing that outcome. >> he is been embattled by what is going on. beijing may be willing to cut them loose. that might allow both sides and out. it does not resolve the fundamental issue which is whether beijing will that the candidates. hong kong is supposed to have elections where the chinese government has said there will be universal suffrage. that is prefaced on the idea that the candidates for that
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vote get that in by beijing. that is what caused the protests. there is no chance that china will reverse that decision. it is unclear how the students can find a way out. that is their fundamental bargaining point. >> great work. we're going to take a break. the ebola economic impact. on someaken it the toll of africa's poorest economies. ♪
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>> welcome back. you're watching "the pulse." we're live from london. says a health worker who treated the ebola patient in contracted the virus. this the first known case of a patient being infected on u.s. soil. other health workers may be infected area for the latest, we've been tracking the story that started in west africa. we have spoken to the sierra leona finance minister. this is one of the three countries that has been at the epicenter of this crisis since it began. more than 4000 people have now
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died of ebola. we spoke with the finance minister and he is very concerned about the situation it, not just in terms of human impact but the economic devastation. have a listen. the wish to say that -- a number of people are running away from their farms. agriculture is dwindling. coffee are a major part of our exports. that is down. mining has suffered. >> we talked about how this has affected equities. the finance minister mentions poco -- coco. it had the biggest price jump on friday in eight months. it is close to a 3.5 year high.
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is not the largest producer of cocoa. that would be ivory coast. it is a neighboring country. it produces 40% of the supply. why the effect on price? what you have in sierra leone are farmers who have been locked out of their farms. entire areas in the northeast have been quarantined. the concern is that the farmers .ill go to ivory coast they could transmit the virus. a problem in terms of epidemiology. the price ofct cocoa and the supply going forward. , the weatherto it in the sun and the rain in ivory coast has been very good. ebolathose concerns about
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and the prospect that the crisis could extend into the ivory coast that is pushing the cocoa higher. -- done yet.that what are some of the things happening in country and what is going on? you talked about this outbreak not being under control until midway through next year. do we really understand the economic impact? >> that is the more optimistic projection. , this couldtbreak follow a pattern that we've seen in central africa previously. we did have some information that makes us doubt whether that is the case. third infection rate
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we have seen in early stabilization's. that is a concern. it creates problems around economic projections. if we are still going with the belief that maybe by the middle of next year we do see this the economic fallout should be somewhat more limited than the projections that a been put out there. as much as this is a human tragedy, the three worst affected economies account for less than 1% of sub-saharan africa gdp. the real concern is that if this is not under control, we could see a more meaningful economic impact. >> some people are talking about it being endemic in west africa. there are worse case scenarios of people are talking about. >> the big concern is that it is
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starting to impact certain activities across the region. this is where that perception that things being more interconnected than they are has an impact. tourism is starting to slow. all the businessmen were complaining about the lack of collective -- connectedness in africa. this must be an advantage right now. see hiswe do want to infrastructure enabling trading activity. the concern right now is that they have relatively porous borders that a been severely impacted. we will have seen an infection rate fall off. if that is not the case, the changinges to
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projections. >> what can of support does the region need economically? is it getting it? what we need to be put in place? >> the game changer would be the international response. bads been allowed to get as as it is because of the poor response internationally when this started. over the summer when we started to get this, if we saw a support healthp systems, this is a locally economic impact. it would be relatively short-term. there is a need for much more food aid. that is where we are going to see the logistics interrupted. local prices are going to come under pressure because people are not able to go around and
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trade as they normally would. we can see a more forceful international response in terms of the scaling up of aid, it is coming late in the day. what can be done to support the fragile health systems that do exist, there is a need for much more medical personnel. this could make a difference. alleviate some of that threat that we now see globally. up in the airport about west africa. how much impact will that story have for investors? how long will it take to wear off? >> even in countries like nigeria where we have seen a very proactive response, they were able to get in -- on top of
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the problem and declare it ebola free. investors are still canceling trips to nigeria. that meanssentiment that the economic impact of this is whiter than previously thought. >> thank you for your thoughts. to take a break. we are back in a couple of minutes.
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>> it is columbus day. merged chrysler begins trading on the new york stock exchange. sam grobart went back down to look at the best and west models. >> chrysler is reemerging on the new york stock exchange. chrysler sold 1.8 million cars and trucks. that is better than 2009. historically, chrysler has been the smallest of the big three in that has not changed. gm is the biggest. in 2013, chrysler's top-selling
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division was dodge. the minivan was the best-selling item. chrysler invented the minivan. the worst was the durango. the next best selling division was jeep. the best-selling jeep last year was the grand cherokee. division.ew it takes third place in the chrysler family. ram is a one model division. of its salesrity were ram trucks. the worst performing division was chrysler. it's minivan dominated. this was a good and bad thing for the company. they capture the largest market shares in that category. that category is shrinking. tuned.
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ceo andg speaks to the we will look to speak to the chairman as well. that is coming up. we are looking forward as conversations. let's give you a quick heads-up of what is happening in the currency markets. this is the euro-dollar behind me right now. trading is up a little bit. the bond market is closed in the united states today. this is what is happening with stocks on our site the pond. the section.ou this bounced a little bit. we are flat. we are exactly unchanged. i think we're looking for a bit of direction from the states. you can see that ounce toward
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the right hand side. that is last week. it was a busy week. to generate going similar volatility? "surveillance" is next. we will see you tomorrow. ♪
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in hong kong as workers have had it with student protest. cabdrivers storm the barricades. on friday, you'll test at new lows -- yield test at new lows.
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corporate america goes in search of synergy splitting into. it is all the rage. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we're live from our world headquarters in new york. it is monday, october 13. i am tom keene. we welcome back scarlet fu. also with us, adam johnson as well. that's get to our top stories. >> the band is back together. a warning from fed policymakers, the vice-chairman says a slowdown in the world economy could undermine the was expansion and lead to a delay in raising interest rates. he made the comments at the imf annual meetings in washington. they expect to raise benchmark interest rate sometime next your. cfx was oppressed by canadian pacific drilling sometime in the past week. they rebuffed the


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